* Originally written on 3/18/2020
DISCLAIMER: This was written, by a sad Patriots fan, following the announcement on 3/17/2020 by Tom Brady that he would not be returning to New England in 2020. This was previous to the subsequent news that Tom Brady has expressed his intention to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – though that changes little to nothing of the content you’ll find below. ^ He’s officially not ‘here’ in New England anymore 😥
The question we try to answer here is simple; Who will be the Patriots starting quarterback in 2020?
The in-house option:
Jarrett Stidham, the Patriots’ 2019 4th round draft pick is the current next man up, but unlikely to actually assume the starting job. His results in New England are limited, but less than inspiring. The definitive moment of his 2019 season was coming in against a demoralized Jets defense and immediately overthrowing an open target for an easy Pick-6. Stidham is still a developmental prospect, but barring some astronomical strides, for an organization that expects to compete in 2020, he’s not an ideal Patriots starting quarterback. ALSO, given the Patriots’ historical willingness to give the quick hook to middle-round QB prospects, he may not even be a lock to be on the 2020 Patriots regular season roster (see Kevin O’Connell).
Stidham is the guy at a bar/party that who’s seen as just alright to a potential suitor – he’s solid-looking and funny enough to talk to and hang with, but that girl in a conversation with him is only sort of engaged conversationally, and has half an eye on the door waiting until someone else better walks in to win their attention, for the moment. Stidham is okay – the Patriots “like” what they saw with him in 2019, but is he THE guy? Once we creepily watch all the other QBs walk through the door, we’ll find out.
Cody Kessler, the man most fans have seemed to forget is still on the Patriots roster. A former 3rd round pick out of USC (selected 93rd overall by the Browns back in 2016), but after 2 years in Cleveland, and brief stints in both Jacksonville and Philadelphia, his shine as a former top 100 draft pick is clearly waning.
I’m a fool, but not a complete fool – nor am I here to blatantly mislead you. I would be SHOCKED if Cody Kessler was even in the conversation of the New England QB landscape by the 4th preseason game of 2020. Remember the name for 8 years from now when you’re reminiscing with your buddies about all the quarterbacks we’ve seen in contention for the Pats QB1 job. Let’s hope it doesn’t get as bad as the Browns QB situation pre-Baker Mayfield, but for 2020, be prepared for a non-GOAT QB, NOT named Cody Kessler.
The free agent signing:
Jameis Winston, love him or hate him (sans Tom Brady), he’s probably the top available free agent QB on the market, but would likely warrant a pretty lucrative contract. If Tom Brady goes to Tampa Bay (over LAC), I imagine the Chargers making a push to sign Jameis, and possibly pricing the Patriots out of play for Jameis. Most football fans are aware of the lightning rod of controversy surrounding Jameis for both his enigmatic on-field play, and his off the field ‘antics’ – which alone might be enough for Belichick to stay away.Quick Jameis-related tangent; it’s taking every ounce of my willpower to NOT purchase this book (Jameis Winston Derangement Syndrome) diving into the turbulent start to his ‘Hall of Fame’ caliber career and the besmirching of his reputation due to ‘Media Bias’. The very existence of this book could be a blog in itself. The rumors are rampant that it was authored by someone in the Bucs organization, or even Jameis himself. Some reviews refer to it as, ‘kindling’, and a piece of total fiction – but my interest is piqued enough that it’s in my ‘Save for Later’ Amazon cart.
Taysom Hill, affectionately known as ‘The Mormon Missile’, in a state where Mitt Romney flourished, why not also Taysom Hill?!
Why not, you ask? Well it seems that the Saints have placed a 1st-round tender on their jack-of-all-trades / maybe-future-franchise-QB-in-a-post-Drew-Brees-world. What does that mean? Well, it basically makes him a restricted free-agent, allowed to negotiate elsewhere, but gives the Saints the ability to match the highest offer and retain Hill, or let him walk, but receive a 1st-round pick in return.
Hill (Turning 30 in August) is ELECTRIC when on the field – the dude just makes plays. The retort to the suggestion that Hill would be as effective as a starting QB might be the age-old adage, ‘jack-of-all trades, but master of none’. To that, I say… okay you may have a point, but watch these highlights and try not to get a little jacked up about him orchestrating an NFL offense. Could be a total disaster, OR it could be absolute poetry in the form of pigskin.To play this video, view this post from your live site.https://www.youtube.com/embed/JJDrf1UStac?autoplay=0&mute=0&controls=0&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fsmallstatetakes.wixsite.com&playsinline=1&showinfo=0&rel=0&iv_load_policy=3&modestbranding=1&enablejsapi=1&widgetid=5
Even as a Taysom Hill believer, the cost of signing him feels super risky given the lack of sample size we have to look at. He’s fun and exciting, but also flourishing in a role as the 3rd QB on the depth chart, acting as a Swiss-army knife, not the primary QB defenses would game plan solely for. That lack of experience aside, he’d have to be paid well (leading to the freeing up of cap space by NE), AND cost a 1st round pick. This is a fun hypothetical, but too costly an endeavor for a team needing either a steady veteran QB to contend now, or a young future face of the franchise. In summary and summation, it doesn’t seem likely that we’ll see ‘the Mormon Missile’ delicately land in Foxboro (That doesn’t sound right but I don’t know how else to describe a missile softly descending).
The Trade Target (or possibly cut player):
Cam Newton, the soon to be 31-year old former NFL MVP is reportedly open to exploring trade options (which in itself is a whole ordeal – with Newton contradicting the Panthers’ wording that insinuates he requested a trade). Regardless, there’s a chance Newton is cut outright by Carolina, clearly ready to move on from their oft-injured franchise QB. They’ve only got $2 million in dead cap for 2020 if they were to cut or trade Cam, so while that’s not a killer, it’s likely enough for them to check the trade market and see if the Bears, or another team in QB-purgatory, is willing to make room financially and give up anything to take on his current contract for the final year at a cap hit of $21.1 mil.
In the event of the Panthers cutting Cam, I’m not ruling this out as a fun to watch, and probably inexpensive short-term option for the Patriots to begin their search in the 2020 or 2021 draft for their next franchise QB.
Andy Dalton, AKA the ‘Red Rifle’ appears to be coming to the end of his tenure in Cincinnati. The writing has been on the wall, even previous to Joe Burrow emerging as their likely selection as the #1 pick, when Ryan Finley (2019 4th round pick) took over the starting job in Week 10 (before losing it back to Dalton after 3 starts).
If he’s cut, once the QB market sorts itself out and the Bengals explore any and all trade destinations, Dalton (turning 33 in October) could be a solid short-term veteran option for New England. But, it’s tough to imagine the Patriots freeing up the cap space necessary to then trade something for Dalton just to take on the final year of his contract at a cost of $17.7 mil.
Derek Carr, the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas, and similar to the Chargers, are in desperation of a big splash acquisition to rile up the fan-base. With the signing of Marcus Mariota for a backup role (although $ has yet to be announced), it’s evident that they’re out on the Brady sweepstakes.
Despite the MASSIVE CONTRACT the Raiders gave Carr back in 2017, with his performance since, Gruden MUST be considering any and all alternative options at quarterback for 2020. Given the salary of Carr, this one doesn’t seem like a viable trade target for New England, more like a signing if the Raiders cut Carr. For now, Carr to Foxboro feels unlikely, and not really something most Patriots fans would find themselves clamoring to happen.
Jacoby Brissett, a former Padawan of Tom Brady himself, could he be the heir to the New England throne? The Indianapolis Colts just signed Philip Rivers to a 1-year deal – which means Obi-Wan Jacoby might become available via trade as a result. Colts are probably motivated to get an asset for Brissett, to help them win now with Rivers, and Brian Hoyer as the primary backup – but unless they’re following the trend of the 2018/2019 Saints, it seems unlikely they’re wanting to sink so much of their salary space in 3 quarterbacks. Rivers costs $25 mil in 2020. Brissett is in the final year of his deal, with a 2020 cap hit of $21.375 mil, and a dead cap hit of $12.5 mil should they cut him (oof). Hoyer comes with a much more reasonable cap hit of $5 mil in 2020, following with a $4 mil cap hit in 2021.
Brissett is an option for New England, but an expensive one. Indianapolis might find suitors elsewhere, for a team like Chicago or Pittsburgh – or even the LA Chargers. Any of those options are likely be possess more financial flexibility to make the Brissett contract work in a trade that would benefit the Colts.
Nick Foles, fresh off a major contract with Jacksonville, the hero and MVP for the Eagles in Super Bowl 52, might be on the post-June trade block. Why post-June? Well the Jaguars would incur severe cap penalties (dead money) if they cut or traded Foles pre-June 1st – versus only $6.25 mil of dead money should they trade him after June 1st. Given the nature of his contract, (and good but performance of Gardner Minshew following the initial surge of Minshew-Mania) the Jags are probably not very motivated to move him now, if at all. While he’s not the worst option in the world to fill the gap between now and the future franchise QB – the timing and salary-related ramifications for Foles to be a Patriot in 2020 just doesn’t seem to make much sense.
Also – what he did do the Patriots in that SB still feels kinda raw. Might be too soon. Might never be able to support him after the ‘Philly Special’. Not for nothing, but to this day, the worst tattoo I’ve ever seen in-person on anyone, was seeing the Philly Special X’s and O’s on some dude’s forearm at a Phillies game at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. That’s like a Patriots fan getting the definition of the Tuck-rule tattooed on their lower back, or ’28-3′ on one hand of knuckles. Don’t get me wrong – I hated every second of it, but as a Philly fan that play was cool, and without a doubt one of the hugest moment for Eagles fans and the city… BUT I’m of the opinion that any fan should be hungry for more. I’m definitely bias, but I’m for sure not at all content with the already crazy high amount of Boston-sports success I’ve been fortunate enough to witness in the first 25ish% of my lifetime – I hope I don’t have enough room on my body to get a tattoo of each Boston-sports championship onto my body. That’s how much I want my Boston teams to win in a post COVID-19 quarantined sports world.
The semi-plausible draft target (sorry Joe Burrow doesn’t qualify):
Tua Tagovailoa, while not a likely option for the 2020 Patriots, the appeal and upside of Tua is irrefutable – even given his hip injury. Staying within reason here, by my estimation, Tua to New England isn’t happening unless the Patriots traded up to select him in the top 10 (and only if he doesn’t go to Miami or the Chargers at picks 5, and 6 in the 2020 NFL draft).Either way, with some semblance of possibility (as opposed to Joe Burrow), Tua is the first QB draft target worthy of mentioning for New England.
The Saban-Belichick connection is real, and despite his injury situation giving the Bengals enough pause for him to fall out of #1 pick contention, Tua’s the clearcut best quarterback prospect to come out of the Alabama dynasty. That alone warrants the Patriots to do their due diligence, and explore any and all options to get Tua in Foxboro as the heir to the throne. It would take a wild amount of stars aligning for Tua to NE to actually happen, so this is not a QB prospect I would suggest Pats fans getting too jazzed up about.
Justin Herbert, the likelihood of Herbert being available at the Patriots’ first selection (pick #23) is slim, so barring a dramatic Brady Quinn-esque draft-day slide down the board, this is another trade-up situation. Seeing the draft board as it lies currently, the dream scenario where Herbert is even available after the 6th pick would probably require the Chargers to win the Tom Brady sweepstakes, and consequently draft some O-Line help at pick #6 (and for Miami to draft Tua over Herbert at #5).
A strong-armed, big-bodied (6’6”, 236 lbs !!!) stud out of Oregon, with enough athleticism to make plays on his own, Herbert draws a bunch of comparisons to Josh Allen and Carson Wentz. Due to his pedigree and production in college, New England would likely have to get into at least the top 10-15 picks in order to acquire Herbert. Not totally out of the question, and more attainable than Tua, but I wouldn’t go start ordering custom Patriots #10 jerseys with ‘Herbert’ on the back.
Jordan Love, to anyone unfamiliar with this name, be ready to hear it a ton over the next who-knows-how-long leading up to the NFL draft. Among NFL-talent evaluators, Love is the most controversial quarterback prospect of the 2020 draft class. He’s gone from being a relatively unknown prospect out of Utah State, to rising WAY up some draft boards (Todd McShay’s Mock Draft 3.0 had Love drafted by the Chargers at #6 – before Justin Herbert!), YET Love was voted the ‘most overrated prospect’ by the majority of their anonymous NFL team sources (via WalterFootball.com).
It sounds cliché, but Love’s another prospect that I will point out has good size, (6’4”, 224 lbs) – and showed he can SLING IT while making plays from a variety of arm slots. If not for an underwhelming 2019 season at Utah State, Love would probably be more of a household prospect for casual NFL fans looking for their next franchise quarterback in the top 10. This is the first quarterback mentioned that I feel relatively confident might be available to the Patriots at their current 1st-round pick (#23) – but if chosen, to the average Pats fan, Love’s selection might feel a little similar to the Giants boldly reaching for Daniel Jones in the 2019 draft with a ton of media/fan backlash. That being said – Bill knows best, and Love might be the major upside, attainable QB prospect to draft in the 1st round without costing an arm and a leg to trade up to get. To play this video, view this post from your live site.https://www.youtube.com/embed/jemZwuc81Sw?autoplay=0&mute=0&controls=0&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fsmallstatetakes.wixsite.com&playsinline=1&showinfo=0&rel=0&iv_load_policy=3&modestbranding=1&enablejsapi=1&widgetid=7
The VERY plausible day 2 or 3 draft target:
(If the Patriots miss out on drafting on one of the aforementioned top 4 QBs, we could be looking at a far from perfect guy as the next best option to compete for the 2020 job. This list could be about 10 names long, but I’ll take a shot in the dark and go with 3 names that stand out as possible diamonds in the rough)
Jacob Eason, the former Georgia QB who lost his starting job to Jake Fromm, then transferred home to play at the University of Washington. At 6’6”, 230 lbs, this dude is massive – think along the lines of a Brock Osweiler / Josh Allen size, with a matching big arm to boot.
According to most scouting reports, Eason’s glaring issue is that he’s absolutely atrocious passing under pressure, like really really really bad. That’s certainly not ideal to imagine for the Patriots’ QB of the future, and sort of reminds me of my Madden tendencies, to just roll out of the pocket on my own volition and immediately collide with a defender. Maybe that makes me like him, or maybe it’s HOW ELITE HE WAS IN A CLEAN POCKET?! The disparity between under-pressure Eason and clean pocket Eason is clear, BUT assuming New England doesn’t get Jordan Love or Justin Herbert, as a day 2 draft pick, I like rolling the dice with Eason over the alternative options.
Jake Fromm, sorry but this one’s a hard pass for me. I’m so out on Jake Fromm it’s not even funny. He doesn’t have the tools or intangibles to make himself interesting to me. He’s destined to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder, sure – but with that will be a career backup QB! I don’t even care he beat out the aforementioned Jacob Eason at Georgia and played his way to the 2017 national championship game. against Alabama. Should I? Probably. Will I regret being this passionately anti-Fromm? Probably not! He’s an undersized 6’2″ 220 lbs, and was a TOUGH watch from the Combine ‘lowlights’ of him attempting to throw deep balls to corner routes. I’m sure he’s a nice person and all, but I’m not investing in him as my franchise’s QB of the future.
He’s destined to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder, but a career backup QB. If the Patriots sign a veteran, and Fromm falls to the late 4th or 5th round I’m okay with taking him as a flier to compete in camp for the backup job with Stidham – but if it actually requires draft capital to get this guy on the roster? No thanks.
If I haven’t made myself clear enough – let’s put it this way, if you pull up his highlights on Youtube, or his NFL draft combine, and put your phone / tablet / computer screen right in front of my freaking face, I will fully go into Bernard from Westworld mode, and I blankly stare right through it, because it doesn’t look like anything to me.
BOTTOM LINE: For New England fans, Tom Brady is gone – come to terms with it now, and prepare for the next chapter. Brady’s the GOAT, and though his tenure in Foxboro is ending in a way most of us we weren’t hoping for, it seems to be cordial between the organization and Brady’s camp. It’s going to get wicked weird in New England, but if there’s something New Englanders love more than Dunkin’ or overbuying milk & bread before an underwhelming snowstorm, it’s getting weird.Though things seem bleak in the moment, this Patriots team is built to remain relevant, and based on the organization’s handling (or hands-off approach) of Tom Brady’s free agency, I have a feeling they must be content with what QB options they have at their disposal for the future.
And with that, in true Bill Belichick fashion, we’re onto rooting for *insert new starting QB name here*.
*The above-mentioned salaries/cap hits referenced can be credited to both Spotrac.com and https://overthecap.com/*
Gilligan's Island of Misfit Thoughts and Rants: 
